Here is some of the discussion from www.weatherunderground.com and if you haven’t checked it out, do. It’s full of information and is very user friendly!
An Air Force reconnaissance plane that
has been sampling the storm’s circulation found that the size of
Gustav has significantly increased. The mid-level ridge over Florida that has been
steering the storm westward is forecast to weaken today. The
Bermuda high is then expected to build in from the western Atlantic
and cause Gustav to move more toward the northwest over the
weekend. One big question is the evolution of a mid- to upper-
level low over the southeastern United States. Some of the
models…such as the GFS/GFDL/HWRF…are showing this low creating
enough of a weakness in the Bermuda high to allow a motion more
toward the north-northwest as the system crosses Cuba.It would not
be surprising if that track briefly occurred…but in the
longer-term…a high over the Ohio Valley is expected to cause
Gustav to gradually Bend to the left. However…there is a large
uncertainty in the timing and sharpness of The Bend.
After the storm moves away from Jamaica…significant
intensification is possible.Vertical wind shear is forecast to be
very light during the next couple of days…and combined with the
deep warm Caribbean waters…could produce a strong hurricane very
quickly. The official forecast will show rapid intensification
before it reaches western Cuba and could be conservative as some
models show category four strength at that time.Although the forecast
shows some weakening due to the shear…Gustav is expected to be a
large powerful hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.
Personally, I don’t care for the latest models showing the potential for a Texas landfall. Of course, you don’t wish this kind of thing on anyone but frankly, I am not in the mood for an evac. lol! Worse yet, reports from Dr. Jeff Masters indicate there are going to be SEVERAL storms following Gustav and we will be blowing through the alphabet here over the next couple of weeks. Looks like we got lucky the last 2 years with storms and this may be a repeat of ‘05. Hang on everybody!
–Lisa
